The “Ground Game” is an interesting thing this year. Traditionally it’s about turning on “The Base.” To understand this quirk of politics, I suppose it is best to understand a little economics.

Continue reading about The economics and statistics of politics and an anecdote after the jump

“Hours of interviews in Manassas Park turned up exactly one resident in favor of the bailout, a fellow in a Harvard T-shirt in a big house near the golf course. Richard Bejtlich, 36, who works in computer security for General Electric—its stock jumped dramatically Friday when the government banned short-selling of financial securities—says he’s a libertarian and normally wouldn’t support government intervention. But there’s no other way at this point, he says, because we’re in too deep of a hole and have been too profligate.”
—“A Sense of Resentment Amid the ‘For Sale’ Signs”, Washington Post, September 22, 2008

Shorter Libertarian:

“I was for unfettered capitalism before I was against it.”

What’s the point in trying to brainwash them to become mindless conservatives when it seems ignorance and selfishness at our top universities are doing the job for you?

(I’ve been ranting too long about this, so please read Paul Krugman and William Kristol. Newsweek has a summary of the economic philosophies of the two candidates.)

Last month, when Obama was way ahead in the polls, a friend asked me if I thought the election would be close this year.

“Of course it’ll be close,” I replied.

“How is that possible that someone like John McCain might win?” He asked incredulously.

“Here is a little history lesson: Thirty years ago news divisions on television were a public obligation of media companies. Twenty years ago, those rules were changed. Ten years ago, news became profit-making divisions. Now they have a vested interest in making it close and who gives a fuck about the country.”

And sure enough, despite the most sickening display on selfish unAmerican flag-waving Constitution-burning, I’ve ever seen on television, the news calls black-white, the polls invert:

Polling data since September 11th shows Obama trails McCain by 2 electoral votes. Polling data is subject to error because the election is still over a month away, restrictions on poll taking, and statistical weightings based on demographic data that may be outdated.

…and the most accurate prediction of elections closes in to a statistical dead heat:

The Iowa Electronic Markets are the longest-running elections market and have been a more accurate predictor of outcome than any other. It is based on the principle that economic gain motivates people to aggregate polling data, news, etc. in an impartial manner.

It is ironic that these sort of markets would help our leaders make more intelligent decisions, but when this sort of market was proposed by conservatives, it was successfully framed by liberals as a “terrorist market” and destroyed. 🙁

Just because I knew it would happen doesn’t mean I like it. After the collapse of our financial markets, I know what you’re doing and I’m tired of your reindeer games. It’s not fun watching a mass brainwash of this country and this world doesn’t give a crap of the desperate “win”s some people need to rack up to avoid an accounting of the horrors they have visited on the it.

Anyone who votes McCain is a traitor or a moron—see, I’m generous, you can take your pick, what sort of scumbag you are. 😉

When people like me have to bother to register to vote, you know you fucked up this country—I’m registering to vote today.

Continue reading about An inspiration for political opinion after the jump