Political popcorn

There has been some funding movement among the Democratic part.

You can read about it on The Next Hurrah or on the Swing State Project. Please remember these are sites slightly biased toward the Democratic Party, so it sounds a lot better than it is.

Translation: The Republicans are on full retreat and are cutting their losses to consolidate their funds to do damage control. However, the movement that is occurring is in the Senate, not the House. This is relevant because the odds are very, very low that the Democratic party will regain the Senate (Democrats need to win almost all the contested races) but around 50-50 that they can regain the House at this point. They need to regain at least one to have any referendum on the Bush “America as an Empire/we create our own reality” doctrine.

My feeling is if the Republican party loses Senate or the House, it will cause the fourth estate to turn on them and begin the fall of the house of cards. That might take up to four more years—more than enough time for “George Bush without Jesus Christ” John McCain to get elected. In the unlikely event they lose both, Bush will probably be impeached and the Republican party will have to rebuild.

The Republican Party will lose seats in the House and Senate, but the question is will there be enough. I am not optimistic. It seems too many things have to go right for the Democratic party for that to happen.

If you are a real political junky like me, check out how the futures on the Iowa Electronic Markets are trading. It’ll take a little while to understand how to read it, but it pays itself many times over. I love the IEM and have since my classmates traded on the Democratic Primary in 1992. (Wow! Has it been that long?)

I bet the Rasmussen polls tonight will cause RH_RS06 to dip at the expense of all but the NH_RS06. Still, RH_RS06 should remain above 50 cents. (I’m surprised RS_gain in Senate06 is trading at 9 cents! I bet that really crashes tomorrow.)

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tychay

light writing, word loving, ❤ coding

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