I ran across this article reinterpreting strategist Peter Berezin’s comments regarding the market.

Instead of the predictions, or him being right, or the definitely-going-to-be-misinterpreted suggestions on how to mitigate it, I was struck by how level-headed and egoless Peter Berezin seems to be. Here are some examples:

• A couple months before the peak he predicted US stocks would fall because of a trade-war caused recession (the recession hasn’t happened officially yet, but the rest is true). His reaction is that he could be just as easily be proven wrong tomorrow about something he analyzes.
• As the market was peaking just after he made his prediction, instead of saying he was confident he was going to be proven right, he said, “You always have to question your assumptions. If you don’t, you’re not really doing your job properly.”
• As to why the consensus was wrong, he had two observations: people had been wrong the other way in 2017 and they were giving Trump the (now mistaken) benefit of the doubt, and that as a strategist for a research firm, it isn’t a career-ender to make an incorrect bearish prediction that it would have been when he was an economist for a bank.

Even his predictions going forward have a light, humble touch:

• He is only targeting 12% more drawdown from the high. This would effectively be just a return to historical averages. Soft-landing territory. If there is an actual crash, it’d be much worse.
• He explains in a common-sense way how Trump thinks which explains how the market got here as well as why it’s unlikely to reverse course.
• He points out that the traditional mitigations or reactions (“buying the dip” and “hiding in bonds”) are unlikely to work like they have in the past.

After showing this to M—, she mentioned that Warren Buffet is the only one of the richest people in the world who made money this year.

As the Oracle of Omaha has a similar disposition as Mr Berezin, I can assume even Warren Buffet is thinking he’s likely be in the red by the time the year is out, maybe not as bad as the others. For, as he famously said, “You don’t find out who’s been swimming naked until the tide goes out.”

(I must confess, I might have some schadenfreude if or when those margin calls happen. In the meantime, I need to work on becoming a better person like these two.)